Bookmakers believe world no1 Harrie Lavreysen is destined for gold in the men’s keirin on the final day of the Paris Olympics.
The Dutch star is an odds-on favourite, 8/11 with a number of online gambling sites, according to data gathered by the UK’s Oddschecker.
Japan’s Kaiya Ota is second favourite, 9/2 with all sites, with Great Britain’s Jack Carlin and Australia’s Matthew Richardson closely matched at around 13/2.
But keirin can be rather chaotic: with six riders jostling for track position, it isn’t always as simple as the fastest rider winning. If everyone is watching Lavreysen, that could allow one of the less fancied riders to seize an opportunity, and snatch the win.
We’re looking at Mateusz Rudyk – current world no1 in match sprint on the UCI database, with a number of C1 and C2 victories in 2024. He has been in good form in recent weeks, winning both sprint and keirin in Frankfurt, and coming second in sprint in Gent. You can get 18/1 on him at various sites.
The man who beat Rudyk in Gent, Israel’s Mikhail Yakovlev is considered an outsider at generous odds of 33/1: but he is ranked 5th for match sprint, and he’s certainly capable of springing a surprise.
For some reason, we haven’t seen odds for Colombia’s Kevin Quintero, world champion and Pan American Games gold medallist in 2023, who has been chosen to carry his country’s flag at Paris. He has had a quiet 2024 so far, but he performed strongly when it mattered last year, enough to rank him no3 in the world for keirin going into Paris.
On the women’s side, bookies expect to see Emmas first and second, with GB’s Finucane backed to beat Germany’s Hinze. But they can’t agree on whether it’s Lea Sophie Friedrich or world keirin no1 Martha Bayona for third.
Hopes of home success across the sprint events seem to rest on Mathilde Gros, currently at odds of 10/1 for keirin glory. She was 4th at Europeans in January, and topped the 2024 Nations Cup overall standings – although she didn’t register an individual result better than 6th. She hasn’t posted a ranking result since that Nations Cup finale in Canada in mid-April, focusing everything on a home Olympics.
If you’re looking for a longer shot: China has a habit of surprising us at major games. They won gold in team sprint at Tokyo, but have made few ripples since. You can get 25/1 on Yuan Liying, or what about 66/1 on Guo Yufang? The pair were in the team sprint trio who won silver, and Guo took bronze behind Kouamé and Hinze in the 500m Time Trial, at the 2022 world championships – held in the very same Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines arena.
